Fantasy Premier League tips: Who to pick as captain for Gameweek 10

April 25, 2024

It’s fair to say that the question of captaincy has been blown wide open this season, not least because Erling Haaland has amassed just two double-digit hauls.

Meanwhile, Mohamed Salah has scored a minimum of 10 points in four of the last five gameweeks and Gameweek 9 saw more big hauls for Ollie Watkins and Son Heung-min.

So who is the best option going into FPL Gameweek 10?

Core values for a captain

FPL is a game of probabilities and when picking a captain each week, maximising the probability of a return is the key to success.

It’s important to select a premium player from a top team. Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Aston Villa are at the top of the Premier League table, providing us with the best captaincy options.

Likewise, it’s important to select the best fantasy asset from those sides: Son, Haaland, Bukayo Saka, Salah or Watkins.

Son Heung-min is a captain option (Justin Setterfield via Getty Images)

When it comes to deciding between this pool of players, there are various factors in play, but form and fixtures are at the core of it. I put more weight on a player’s form than fixtures when making the captaincy decision.

All of these players (bar Son) have won more FPL points at home than away, which shows a home fixture is generally beneficial. The quality of the opponent must be considered, too, plus any key injuries that could impact the fixture and which areas the opponent is most vulnerable in.

There can be additional factors, such as a player’s record against specific opponents, the captaincy favourites from an ownership perspective, and also the timing of the fixture relative to midweek games and European minutes.

Captaincy candidates

Haaland (£14m) will almost certainly be the most-captained player heading into FPL Gameweek 10 despite just two goals in four before the unpredictable Manchester derby.

We have seen a decline in Haaland’s shot volumes in recent games, with just five efforts on goal and two Opta-defined ‘big chances’ in the last four gameweeks, which does not help the argument for him.

Manchester City also have one less day to recover than their opponents Manchester United following a busy midweek of Champions League football. The fixture is at Old Trafford, too.

Haaland has managed three goals and two assists from two Premier League appearances against Manchester United, but all those returns came in the 6-3 home victory last season, with United winning their home game 2-1.

This may be the week to back against Haaland for the captaincy, but according to Fantasy Football Hub, which uses AI to generate points predictions, he’s still ranked above the competition, on 7.5 predicted points.

Salah (£12.8m) is winning the captaincy race in my side, with five goals in his last four games, plus a home tie against Nottingham Forest, who have already struggled defensively in away ties against Arsenal and Manchester City this season.

Salah has completed 90 minutes on six occasions this season and is usually used sparingly in midweek European fixtures, plus he’s on penalties — Liverpool have been awarded four already this season.

The Egyptian has pedigree in this fixture, too, scoring in a 3-2 win last season, and he sits top for shots (15) in the last four gameweeks, converting all five of his big chances and creating three big chances for his team-mates.

Saka (£8.5m) can also enjoy home comforts this week, having produced an attacking return in every game at the Emirates this season.

His underlying numbers are patchy given his injury troubles in recent weeks, so seeing his game time protected in the Champions League might be crucial to his credibility as a captain pick.

Opponents Sheffield United are struggling defensively, with 24 goals conceded this season and zero clean sheets. This elevates Saka in the captaincy conversation, plus he dominates Arsenal’s set pieces — but penalty duty has been shared with Martin Odegaard.

Watkins is rightly in the FPL captaincy conversation (Andrew Kearns/CameraSport via Getty Images)

Watkins (£8.3m) has to be considered as promoted Luton Town visit Villa Park, with Watkins delivering an attacking return in each of the past five gameweeks: five goals and five assists in that time.

Eighty per cent of his goals have come at home this campaign and he’s registered a leading tally of 15 shots in the box over the last four gameweeks. Eight key passes in that time place him top among forwards for creativity, too.

We know Watkins is a formidable force when in a purple patch and opponents Luton are without a clean sheet this season, conceding 17 goals in nine games. Watkins is a great differential captain in an open week, although he isn’t on penalties.

The final key name in the frame is Spurs’ Son (£9.5m), not least because he’s playing out of position as a striker and doesn’t have a midweek fixture to overcome before the trip to Crystal Palace.

His minutes have been managed in recent weeks since he has been carrying a knock, but that hasn’t stopped him from scoring good returns, with four goals and an assist in the last four gameweeks.

He has taken 16 shots in that time, of which four were big chances. Son is notorious for outperforming his underlying metrics, with five returns from 3.3 expected goal involvements.

An away game is perhaps the only downside for Son, but five of his seven goals this season have come on the road. Crystal Palace have kept four clean sheets this season but recently conceded four to Newcastle United and three to Aston Villa.

Spurs dominate for shots, having produced a league-high 95 this season. It is thought that Son is first choice for penalties under Ange Postecoglou, but we await confirmation of that.

GO DEEPER

Fantasy Premier League: Gameweek 9 review - why you need Salah

(Top photo: Michael Regan via Getty Images)

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